Tonight – about five to six hours from now – the 2011 Academy Awards show will get underway; here’s my list of the winners and why.
[Update ~11pm – Watched the Oscars; added winners/losers. Got seven of nine correct.]
Best Picture – The King’s Speech
Why: I haven’t seen yet, but I’ve heard nothing but good things about it. And it’s the traditional type of big Hollywood movie the Academy traditionally rewards. Correct
Best Director – David Fincher, The Social Network
Why: The Facebook movie is picked by a lot of critics to take home the Best Picture award, but I just don’t see that happening. While a somewhat traditional Hollywood movie (hard work, some backstabbing and you make good), it’s more of a younger movie, and the Academy is old. I think the Academy may reward Fincher with the Best Director award instead of the Best Picture award (which, as I outlined above, will go to The King’s Speech) – much like the way it was done with Brokeback Mountain a few years ago. Wrong – it went to the favorite, The King’s Speach.
Best Actor – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Why: Nothing but good press for Firth in a highly-acclaimed movie. And movies where one plays against type of or has a disability (think Rainman, Forrest Gump, Boys Don’t Cry) give one an extra bump. This is a gimme. Correct
Best Actress – Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Why: See Best Actor, above. Much, much darker than anything she has played. Though the sexual elements of her performance may work against her with some Academy members. We are such prudes in this country. Correct
Best Support Actor – Christian Bale, The Fighter
Why: Really, the only competition for Bale is Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech. Since this is going to be a King’s Speech night, Rush has a chance of pulling an upset. However, he has won before (Best Actor for Shining), and the Academy tends to reward someone new. If merit alone won Academy Awards, think of how cluttered Meryl Streep’s mantelpiece would be… Correct
Best Supporting Actress – Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Why: Most critics say Leo is a lock, but with both her and Amy Adams nominated for the same slot from the same movie, there might be some ballot-splitting. But I still see Leo taking the statue home. If there is a split, Helena Bonham Carter will be the winner – again, it’s going to be a King’s Speech love fest… Correct
Best Original Screenplay – Christopher Nolan, Inception
Why: I really haven’t read much about this – I believe The King’s Speech is nominated here, as well. But Inception is just so strikingly original that I think is should win. Wrong – went to The King’s Speech. Interesting.
Best Adapted Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Why: This was brilliant writing and, to me, was the best part of the movie. If this doesn’t win, that’ll be a big surprise to me. Correct
Best Animated Film – Toy Story 3
Why: Because every Pixar film is so many times better than the competition… Correct
The envelope please…