Many years from now (yes, in a galaxy far, far away or whatever…), I think a lot of us will look back on the last few years as a Golden Time on the Net.
In some ways, the “golden” is actually pyrite, but that’s often the case, isn’t it?
We are reaching the fulcrum of the Web’s use; shortly, what is now exciting/evil will either become normal or cease to exist – or, more likely, morph into something that makes it almost difficult to recall the excitement/anger the original stuff created/caused.
In many ways, we have crossed over the fulcrum – the Web, in it’s current incarnation, is a very user-friendly place. Like it or not, IE is the overwhelmingly dominant browser, so designers are designing for it in a consistent manner. (No, this is not a good thing, but it is consistent, which is good.).
The geekiness needed to navigate the Web is fading away. For the average user, even a dial-up connection is not too intimidating, and getting from here to there is becoming a no-brainer.
Other areas, however, are still firmly entrenched in geekDom, but this is starting to go away, as well. Some thoughts on what one finds/what defines the fulcrum of Net use:
- Ease of use – A better title would be Transparency, where the user doesn’t have think about how to accomplish a task. Yes, operating a normal phone initially required a learning curve/process, but who thinks about it now? And of course people have answering machines…. (Don’t get me started on the feature-bloated, user-unfriendly cell phones…). As mentioned above, we are pretty much there with the Web itself (past the halfway mark, let’s say); other areas leave a lot to be desired. A very good (and damn early) example of Transparency is DNS – geeks grok it; most don’t even think about it (and it they did, the wouldn’t 1) Care, 2) Get it). Yeah, I can remember www.yahoo.com…could I remember 66.218.70.49? And let’s not even discuss dynamic IP addressing..
- Commonality – The Transparency driver, this is losely defined as a baseline set of common elements/behavior between uncommon systems. So one can move from one to another without really having much of a learning curve. (See Accepted Standards, below) It’s like going – today – from a Mac to PC or vice-versa. Have to learn new habits for keystrokes, there is a finder/no Explorer and so on, but the basic concept is the same. With KDE especially, Linux on the Desktop is getting close to being possible (main roadblock: Lack of apps for Linux. Photoshop; PeachTree Accounting; PowerPoint; Visio…). This applies to computers only right now – probably leaving out PDAs, even – but should embrace all tools in the future, including such non-PC devices such as TiVo and XBoxes.
- Accepted Standards – I don’t mean this in the way there is a push for Web Standards (which I’m all for, by the way). By accepted standards, I mean basic constructs/uses that are expected. It’s in many ways an extension of Commonality, which…enhances Transparency…hey, this is actually making sense! Example: In this past week, the Net has been festooned with all sorts of e-mail viruses and worms. A lot of the discussion of this surrounds things like “well, use SpamAssain” or “IMAP beats POP/SMTP” etc. Outside of the geeks, to whom does this make sense (hint: no one). In the future, all e-mail clients will come with built-in Baysian filtering that is not identified as such (because it means nothing to most) and defaults pretty much the same for all e-mail tools and has similar (Commonality) preferences options so those who want can tweak. For most users, the default is the 80/20 solution. Note: Accepted Standards will shift with the times and technology. Commonality today might mean a standard type of dialer; tomorrow it will mean every electronic device is Web enabled (wireless or hard-wired; same behavior). The day after tomorrow it mean it will all be in 3D and make lattes for you… Also note: The defaults I allude to will be the security holes of the future, much like Windows + Outlook is a security target today simply because it’s the biggest bang for hackers buck.
- The Ho-Hum Effect – As things become more standardized and transparent, the “wow” effect of the early Web will, for the most part, disappear. This is at the same time sad and a good thing. While there will be new ideas that suddenly enliven the Web (for short times, in some cases), most of the buzz will still be from the Geeks. Ordinary users will not see them. Think about cars – no, you really don’t think about cars, do you? But, hell, there are all sorts of new, space-age, Web-based improvements going into cars that I can see one getting excited about them. But I’m not. My biggest car thoughts are when to fill my tank. That’s it. We are beginning to see the ho-hum Effect in progress on the Web with Blogs: Once-crazed bloggers are getting tired of doing so, or finding the reasons to blog less interesting. Examples:
- Megnut (yes, a founder of Blogger, no less!)
- Jeremy Zawodny – A techie at Yahoo!; great blogger…
- Kottke.org – One of the first bloggers I read consistently; this is his most recent blog…four days ago…hmmm…used to be four posts a day…..
Sure, these are just anecdotal, but these are hard-cored bloggers and now…the thrill is gone to a degree. Which is fine. It’s part the the move to the fulcrum (and the sheer number of blase blogs…)
- Megnut (yes, a founder of Blogger, no less!)
So this is a fun time for the Web: Maddening (Windows updates/patches, worms), exciting (what will blogs become, if anything?), uncertain (I keep hearing about Web Services. Don’t see them. What should I learn? Java or .Net?).
And – at the same time – the Net is still much in its infancy. Well, perhaps it’s getting out of the terrible teens is more accurate, and trying to decide what it wants to do when it grows up (IPv6? Is Google God or Evil? How to solve the last mile problem?).
And for any of us with any interest or ties to Open Source Software, there is the delicious, Alice Down the Rabbit Hole drama that is SCO vs., well, everyone from the sound of it. (Read – daily – the coverage on GROKLAW – you can’t make this shit up…)
But I could be wrong. Maybe the Net is just warming up…
I could live with that.