Electoral Math

A rumination coming out of our recent general election, specifically the 2008 presidential election.

I’ve never been a fan of the Electoral College, and this election again points out some of the, well, oddnesses of this institution.

A week and a half after the election, Missouri is still inexplicably not called, but let’s pretend it goes to the election’s loser, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

McCain still loses 365 to 173 electoral college votes. This is a landslide of sorts, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) getting approximately 66% of the electoral votes to McCain’s 33%.

Two-to-one margin. Blowout.

But the popular vote is way closer, roughly a 6% Obama win, not a 33% margin.

WTF?

Exactly.

At the same time, there are a number of reasons the Electoral College is not going to go away anytime soon, and here are some of the reasons I think this is so:

  • Whatever party’s in the White House won the electoral vote: So there’s very little incentive for them to address this issue. The only exception would be if Party A is in the White House and Party B wins the election with a really low percentage (I think it’s possible to get ~21% of the popular vote and carry the electoral college). However, in this case, it would be in the midst of a lame duck period and it would look too partisan, even for D.C.
  • We’re a Republic, not a Democracy: We democratically elect representatives to govern; we don’t personally vote on every issue. While a bit of an anomoly, the electoral college is just another check and balance, much as the Senate gets to approve a President’s choices of Supreme Court judges.
  • States you might expect to be for abolishing the electoral college aren’t: Some argue that one-person one-vote elections would force candidates to court voters in smaller (electoral) states, but this isn’t really true.

    Let’s take an extreme example: Wyoming. The US’ least populous state, it has approximately 500,000 people. Wyoming has three electoral votes. Alaska, ranked No. 2 in population, has three electoral votes, as well, but with a population of approximately 700,000 for the same number of electoral votes. Therefore, Wyoming voters each have a larger influence on the state’s electoral vote’s than do Alaskan voters.

    In Illinois, where I live, there are 21 electoral votes for roughly 13 million voters, or about 600,000 people per electoral vote. In Wyoming, it’s 500,000/3 = 167,000 people per electoral vote, or about four/five times fewer than Illinois. So, a single user’s vote in Wyoming – at least statistically – is much more influential than same in Illinois.

    And you can repeat this exercise around the country, adjusting for voting age/registered population, but the bottom line is pretty much the same: The less electoral votes, the greater the impact of a single vote on those electoral votes.

  • It hasn’t broken yet: There really haven’t been any game-changing electoral college votes (that I’m aware of), so it’s an if it ain’t broke don’t fix it issue.

Personally, I’d rather see the primary elections streamlined before we get around to looking at the electoral college; the primaries have become – since 2000, to me – way too long, way too inconsistent (caucus, regular vote, winner take all, proportioned delegates, those oh-so-mysterious Super Delegates) to make any sense. What did we have, like 1000 primary debates? Barack Obama’s been campaigning for almost two years; billions have been spent on this presidential run (all candidates from all parties). We gotta put the brakes on somehow, even if it is just market forces (i.e. no one watches anything other than the first and last primary debate, skipping the 998 betwixt).

But – as with Gore in 2000 – having the presidential loser the winner in the popular vote is, well, disconcerting.

We Have History

Barack Obama sealed the deal earlier, securing the nomination election for the 44th president of the United States of America. And, bye the bye, the first African-American president.

Pretty amazing night. Obama gave a solid, emotional but realistic speech to the approximately 100k(?) people in Grant Park, Chicago.

John McCain gave a gracious, classy speech to about 1k folks at his party in Arizona. (Invitation only)

Sorta sums up the campaign that is now, thankfully, over.

Hovering Over History

Well, unless something goes very wrong tomorrow, by this time tomorrow, we – folks in the U.S. – will probably know that an historic event has occurred:

We’ll either have elected our first African-American president, or elected our first Female vice president.

Either way, historic.

I predict Obama with a 90-120 electoral vote win (over McCain), but a very low popular vote edge (~5-7%).

I could – and probably am – wrong, which is the fun part of putting this down on electronic paper.

So I can look at this tomorrow as ask myself, “What the hell were you thinking?”

Let the votes begin…

Big Picture

This post title is literal, I’m talking about a bigger TV (and more).

I’ve had a 27-inch CRT Sony for years (great picture), but the idea always was to move this TV upstairs to the bedroom (where the bedroom TV is a disaster), and get a flatscreen for the living room.

Finally got the chance to get one of those big, honkin’ LCD screens (Sanyo).

Wow. Bigger pic and all that, but – TV and DVD – lots of pixalation.

Big TV was just Part I of my III part plan.

Next, got an upscaling DVD player. I just watched Casino, and the well-lit parts of this are (especially) outstanding. Even on a big-ass TV, very little grain, and virtually no pixalation.

Then, I upgraded from Comcast Analog to Comcast Digital (with HD channels).

Many issues to report, but bottom line:

Oh.

My.

God.

Lester Holt on MSNBC news (HD) is impeccable, even on this large screen.

The digital feed makes non-HD channels much better than analog, really.

There are issues (that I’ll bring up as I really identify and get fixed/not), but overall, WOW.

I’ll only be watching HD channels (networks, History Channel etc) unless there isn’t an HD option (Comedy Central – with “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report” – are sadly NOT HD….).

Welcome to the 21st Century, you analog Luddite…

Just Like Ike


Our backyard – not supposed
to have a pond

Well, Hurricane Ike is barreling through Texas, and up here in Chicago we are getting the remnants of that Category 2 storm.

We set some sort of record for rainfall yesterday at more than six inches, and more is on the way.

The picture shows how the rain has pooled at the end of our (and neighbors’) yard; it’s a couple of inches deep.

It rained like hell all yesterday; still raining today but not as bad, and the flood waters are receding.

Still, it would have been nice to come back from vacation and be able to barbecue or just wander around the yard. Not going to happen this weekend…

Notes From the East Coast

Well, we just returned from a week in Maine.

We pretty much stayed on the coast, from Portland up north to Bar Harbor and Acadia National Park. We did go inland a bit – up to Bangor and through Augusta – but that was just on the interstate to get back down to Portland from Bar Harbor.

I’m in the process of building out the gallery for this trip, but – as I process images – some first impressions of the state while it’s still fresh in my mind:

  • I could live in Maine, at least in Portland. It’s a beautiful and sensible (see examples below) state.
  • Very beautiful coastline, and the lighthouses are, of course, classic. Very different coastline than the US’ Pacific coastline, both in looks (Maine more weathered rock; Pacific more sand beaches) and character – Maine fishing and so on; Pacific a lot of housing.
  • Once we veered from the coast, the heavy forests heavy with pine and birch reminded me of upper Wisconsin or Michigan. With the hills (not so much in WI or MI), it reminded me a lot of upstate New York, the Finger Lake region.
  • Maine, like Montana, has a state rule that says if an individual is standing in a crosswalk, vehicles must stop and let the pedestrians cross. We’re talking in the middle of block in downtown Portland at rush hour. Amazing. I wonder how many tourists from Maine or Montana never fully make it across their first street in Chicago, for example?
  • A very clean state. Sure, less populous than Illinois and all that, but I saw virtually no garbage on highway sides, in state parks, on beaches and so on.
  • Tying in with the preceding point: Overall, Maine seems to respect nature more than many states I’ve been to. Lots of garden centers; many well-landscaped homes (even the small, poorer homes). Little trash. Canisters with pooper-scooper bags to help clean up after dogs. Speaking of the same, dogs everywhere. In stores and so on. No big deal. Things like these.
  • Friendly folks. Shopkeepers, people on the street, the highway department: It’s not construction for the next 3 miles, it’s construction for the next 3.01 miles. Honest. Saw lots of signs like that.
  • I love seafood (no sure why; never had any beyond perch fry growing up), and I certainly ate my fill this week…and I still want more…
  • I grew up and still live in the Midwest, so the whole concept of border security doesn’t resonate with me in a local manner. But along the Maine coast, I was amazed to see all the harbor fortifications up and down the coast. Makes total sense, but again, I’m from the Midwest. The only invasion – for example – of Green Bay, WI, will be Packer fans… So I learned stuff!

Possibly more to come, but Bottom Line: I could live there, and I’d certainly go back there again as a tourist.

Maine rocks!

Another Voice Silenced

Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the Nobel Price winning author/Russian gulag inmate, died today at age 89.

I’m a HUGE fan of Russian Literature, but, to me, Solzhenitsyn was a lot like Tolstoy. Each had epics (Gulag Archipelago; War and Peace) that are AMAZING, but what sticks with me are the shorter works:

— Tolstoy: Family Happiness, The Death of Ivan Ilych
— Solzhenitsyn – One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich (honestly, one of the most painful and beautiful short stories/novellas).

Who are the new Russian authors?

Rent

Last night, we went to see the opening performance of a local community group’s production of Rent.

We had seen a professional production of this show, oh, about a decade ago in Chicago, and greatly enjoyed it, so I was interested to see how this version would compare.

Not bad – actually, pretty damn good.

It was a really fun performance. Extremely well cast, and performed with enthusiasm.

The player cast as Collins had an amazing voice, and – according to his bio – he is still in high school. Man, do I feel like a talentless loser…

And I had forgotten about the role played by the Maureen character – and in this production, she damn near stole the show. A petite blonde with an incredible set of pipes and a palpable fearlessness. And – this is something I noticed – she really was having fun (but in character) up there. During the last number, where the entire cast forms a line across the stage and sings, she was (subtly) boppin’ to the music, holding hands with the Mimi character, just really into it.

The only downside was the sound – sometimes the voices were too soft. Roger was really hard to make out for most of the show, unless he was really pounding something out. Maureen was clear first act; sometimes soft in the second.

But it was opening night – time to iron out the kinks.

Great play – solid, very enjoyable performance.

And I’ve been playing the Rent soundtrack the entire time I’ve been composing this entry…one of my favorite CDs, actually, and I’m not a musical theater buff.